March 2021 Election Results

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The March 9 municipal election in Palm Beach Gardens was a clear win for former Mayor Marcie Tinsley with 70% of the vote over newcomer Rob Nanfro. Nanfro won one precinct – 6064 Rustic Lakes.

With the exception of the Shady Lakes / Bent Tree precinct where the margin was only 4 points, Tinsley’s landslide victory was overwhelming. (See Map below)

The overall turnout of 16% was a lot more than what a municipal election normally sees in an off year, particularly a special election to replace a council person who left office early. In 2019 for example, turnout was only 9.5% in the low key race for Group 4 in which Carl Woods beat challenger Howard Rosenkrantz with 68% of the vote. The increased turnout may have been driven by the overhang of Vote-by-Mail ballot subscriptions from 2020. Few went to the polls on election day as an amazing 85% of the Gardens voters voted by mail.

As is often the case, BallenIsles led the way in voter turnout among the larger precincts with 31%, followed by Frenchman’s with 26%. These neighborhoods delivered 74% and 78% for Tinsley respectively.

Municipal elections are non-partisan, meaning the candidates cannot campaign as a member of a political party. Palm Beach Gardens goes farther than any other city in the county to discourage partisan activity, and actually has an ordinance that prevents a candidate from accepting money or assistance from a political party. (Code of Ordinances, Chapter 26-21 Unfair Acts)

In this case both candidates are Republicans, but partisanship was a factor as campaign ads from Rob Nanfro were claiming that Tinsley only became a Republican to run in this race. That was a stretch since Ms. Tinsley has been registered as a Republican for over 5 years. It is not clear why he thought that would have been relevant.

North county races have become somewhat nasty in recent years and this was no exception. You may recall the contest last year for County Commission District 1 where PACs supporting Maria Marino dumped $1M in negative ads to trash former Commissioner Karen Marcus. It seems to have worked.

In this race, Tinsley mostly ran on her record as Mayor and Councilman while the challenger (who is relatively new to the area and has no record) went negative. Perhaps the most questionable claim was that Tinsley was bashing Governor DeSantis over the Covid-19 Response at a Council meeting. Anyone who actually watched the video of the subject meeting would conclude just the opposite.

In our opinion there was never a doubt who would prevail. Marcie Tinsley had a good record to run on, followed the rules for term limits by sitting out for 3 years, and is appreciated by many who followed her activities on the Council over the years.

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Group 2
Strong Tinsley	Weak Tinsley	Very Close	Weak Nanfro	Strong Nanfro
Click the precinct on the map for vote totals.

	Neighborhoods	Voters	Cast	Turnout	Tinsley	Nanfro	Tinsley %
1186	Mirabella	1637	242	14.8	173	69	71.5
1188	Westwood Gardens	1034	104	10.1	71	33	68.3
1189	Old Palm – North	113	20	17.7	13	7	65.0
1190	The Isles, Paloma, San Michelle, Alton	5115	654	12.8	458	196	70.0
1192	Evergrene	1571	240	15.3	195	45	81.3
1194	Frenchmans	2289	585	25.6	458	127	78.3
1222	Avenir	40	5	12.5	5	0	100.0
1228	Osprey Isles, Carleton Oaks	481	79	16.4	52	27	65.8
1238	Mirasol	1912	428	22.4	290	138	67.8
1240	PGA National	2660	453	17.0	338	115	74.6
1242	PGA National	2704	577	21.3	410	167	71.1
1244	PGA National	1695	324	19.1	241	83	74.4
1246	Bent Tree, Garden Lks, Shady Lks, Gdns of Woodbury	2593	372	14.3	192	180	51.6
1247	Old Palm – South	271	46	17.0	30	16	65.2
1248	PGA-east.	1591	297	18.7	186	111	62.6
1250	Gardens Glen	64	10	15.6	5	5	50.0
1252	BallenIsles	2374	739	31.1	547	192	74.0
1254	Hunt Club	471	70	14.9	52	18	74.3
1260	Elm Avenue	1361	205	15.1	142	63	69.3
1262	RCA Center	2	0	0.0	0	0	50.0
1266	Union Square, Randolph Way	491	14	2.9	11	3	78.6
1268	Golfers Drive, Lilac	357	17	4.8	9	8	52.9
1270	Lilac Park	10	0	0.0	0	0	50.0
1272	Holly Drive, Riverside	2050	263	12.8	189	74	71.9
1274	Gardenia Dr, Arbor Way	1687	229	13.6	171	58	74.7
1280	Lake Catherine	434	77	17.7	46	31	59.7
1284	Gardens Mall area	2517	299	11.9	209	90	69.9
1288	Oakway Circle	40	8	20.0	5	3	62.5
1290	The Oaks	2290	337	14.7	240	97	71.2
1292	Nature’s Way	92	14	15.2	9	5	64.3
1296	Prosperity Oaks, Marina Gardens	831	70	8.4	54	16	77.1
1306	US1 and PGA	5	0	0.0	0	0	50.0
1310	Ellison Wilson	4	0	0.0	0	0	50.0
1324	Oaks East, Sandelwood	1376	136	9.9	94	42	69.1
1326	Siena Oaks	606	85	14.0	62	23	72.9
1340	Landing Place	18	6	33.3	3	3	50.0
1352	Steeplechase, Montecito	2347	267	11.4	166	101	62.2
1360	Sunset	994	205	20.6	120	85	58.5
1372	Sandtree	187	9	4.8	6	3	66.7
6062	Bay Hill Estates	945	164	17.4	99	65	60.4
6064	Rustic Lakes	133	19	14.3	7	12	36.8