2014 Council Election Results - An Analysis

March 16, 2014

The 2014 municipal elections in Palm Beach Gardens generated a lot of interest – a full 19% of registered voters participated, compared to a more typical 10%.

Congratulations to the winners – incumbents Eric Jablin and Marcie Tinsley.

Group 3

In group 3, 22 year incumbent Eric Jablin was outspent by challenger Michael Peragine, who ran more TV and radio ads. Both candidates did a prodigious direct mail campaign with flyers piling up in mailboxes as the election approached. In the end though, it came down to turning out the vote, and Jablin prevailed, winning by 151 votes (1.9%), with 51.1% of the vote.

Peragine dominated the precincts from NW to SE along I95 by large margins, particularly in the area of the proposed stadium and in his home precinct of Mirabella. Jablin Captured the larger precincts that have traditionally gone for the incumbent – BallenIsles, PGA National, and Frenchman’s (Reserve and Creek). BallenIsles alone delivered 784 votes for Jablin (22% of his total) and saw their turnout increase to 43%, compared to 32% last year.

Turnout was up in most precincts, as the challengers sought out new voters. Precinct 1246 for example, which includes Bent Tree, Old Palm and Shady Lakes turned out 22%, up from 6% last year, and delivered 418 votes for Peragine, 87% of their total. If the relative voter turnout among precincts had been similar to last year, Jablin would have won by a larger margin, 54% to 46%.

Not coincidentally, the two precincts with the biggest increase in voter participation were the home precincts of challengers Robin Deaton (Bent Tree and surroundings – up 267%) and Michael Peragine (Mirabella – up 190%).

Group 3
Strong Jablin Weak Jablin Very Close Weak Peragine Strong Peragine
Click the precinct on the map for vote totals.

Group 5

In group 5, three year incumbent Marcie Tinsley turned back a challenge from stadium opponent and Bent Tree resident Robin Deaton. Much less money was spent on this race compared to group 3, and in addition to a smaller direct mail campaign, the challenger depended on a network of volunteers to reach and turn out voters. At the end of the day, Tinsley prevailed by 617 votes (9.2%), 54.6% to 45.4%.

In her home area of Bent Tree and the neighborhoods around the stadium, Deaton turned out 22% of her precinct and won 87% of them. She was also strong in precinct 1190 (The Isles, Paloma and San Michelle). In other areas she was probably hampered by lack of name recognition. Tinsley captured 79% of her home precinct of Evergreene (15% turnout) and was strong in the incumbent friendly areas of BallenIsles, PGA and Frenchman’s.

Group 5
Strong Tinsley Weak Tinsley Very Close Weak Deaton Strong Deaton
Click the precinct on the map for vote totals.

Tabular Results

Precinct Reg Cast TO% Jablin Peragine M3% Deaton Tinsley M5%
1186 1460 423 29 91 329 22 210 161 43
1188 784 93 12 28 64 30 53 36 40
1190 2448 322 13 98 217 31 203 107 35
1192 1403 206 15 76 116 40 42 162 79
1194 1907 624 33 450 169 73 153 443 74
1238 1571 426 27 210 215 49 177 212 54
1240 2413 555 23 345 206 63 197 310 61
1242 2392 699 29 470 223 68 212 386 65
1244 1454 355 24 207 142 59 140 187 57
1246 2209 494 22 67 418 14 424 62 13
1248 1415 295 21 91 201 31 162 127 44
1250 65 15 23 12 3 80 1 14 93
1252 2279 989 43 784 194 80 265 602 69
1254 435 65 15 39 26 60 23 41 64
1260 1262 194 15 57 132 30 97 95 49
1264 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
1266 450 9 2 5 4 56 4 5 56
1268 269 11 4 3 8 27 7 4 36
1270 8 0 0 0 0 0 0
1272 1843 233 13 83 148 36 113 115 50
1274 1564 198 13 82 115 42 94 102 52
1280 422 54 13 21 33 39 30 19 39
1284 2091 165 8 103 62 62 54 100 65
1288 40 11 28 5 6 45 6 5 45
1290 2076 211 10 82 129 39 103 104 50
1292 58 8 14 6 2 75 3 5 62
1296 626 27 4 13 13 50 13 12 48
1306 8 0 0 0 0 0 0
1310 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
1324 1237 85 7 26 58 31 45 38 46
1326 584 58 10 21 37 36 27 29 52
1340 10 1 10 1 0 100 0 1 100
1352 2031 223 11 94 128 42 106 105 50
1360 845 113 13 46 66 41 58 49 46
1372 138 5 4 2 3 40 2 3 60
TOTAL 37807 7167 19.0% 3618 3467 51.1% 3024 3641 54.6%