2014 Council Election Results – An Analysis

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The 2014 municipal elections in Palm Beach Gardens generated a lot of interest – a full 19% of registered voters participated, compared to a more typical 10%.

Congratulations to the winners – incumbents Eric Jablin and Marcie Tinsley.

Group 3

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In group 3, 22 year incumbent Eric Jablin was outspent by challenger Michael Peragine, who ran more TV and radio ads. Both candidates did a prodigious direct mail campaign with flyers piling up in mailboxes as the election approached. In the end though, it came down to turning out the vote, and Jablin prevailed, winning by 151 votes (1.9%), with 51.1% of the vote.

Peragine dominated the precincts from NW to SE along I95 by large margins, particularly in the area of the proposed stadium and in his home precinct of Mirabella. Jablin Captured the larger precincts that have traditionally gone for the incumbent – BallenIsles, PGA National, and Frenchman’s (Reserve and Creek). BallenIsles alone delivered 784 votes for Jablin (22% of his total) and saw their turnout increase to 43%, compared to 32% last year.

Turnout was up in most precincts, as the challengers sought out new voters. Precinct 1246 for example, which includes Bent Tree, Old Palm and Shady Lakes turned out 22%, up from 6% last year, and delivered 418 votes for Peragine, 87% of their total. If the relative voter turnout among precincts had been similar to last year, Jablin would have won by a larger margin, 54% to 46%.

Not coincidentally, the two precincts with the biggest increase in voter participation were the home precincts of challengers Robin Deaton (Bent Tree and surroundings – up 267%) and Michael Peragine (Mirabella – up 190%).

Group 3
Strong Jablin	Weak Jablin	Very Close	Weak Peragine	Strong Peragine
Click the precinct on the map for vote totals.

Group 5

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In group 5, three year incumbent Marcie Tinsley turned back a challenge from stadium opponent and Bent Tree resident Robin Deaton. Much less money was spent on this race compared to group 3, and in addition to a smaller direct mail campaign, the challenger depended on a network of volunteers to reach and turn out voters. At the end of the day, Tinsley prevailed by 617 votes (9.2%), 54.6% to 45.4%.

In her home area of Bent Tree and the neighborhoods around the stadium, Deaton turned out 22% of her precinct and won 87% of them. She was also strong in precinct 1190 (The Isles, Paloma and San Michelle). In other areas she was probably hampered by lack of name recognition. Tinsley captured 79% of her home precinct of Evergreene (15% turnout) and was strong in the incumbent friendly areas of BallenIsles, PGA and Frenchman’s.

Group 5
Strong Tinsley	Weak Tinsley	Very Close	Weak Deaton	Strong Deaton
Click the precinct on the map for vote totals.

Tabular Results

Precinct	Reg	Cast	TO%	Jablin	Peragine	M3%	Deaton	Tinsley	M5%
1186	1460	423	29	91	329	22	210	161	43
1188	784	93	12	28	64	30	53	36	40
1190	2448	322	13	98	217	31	203	107	35
1192	1403	206	15	76	116	40	42	162	79
1194	1907	624	33	450	169	73	153	443	74
1238	1571	426	27	210	215	49	177	212	54
1240	2413	555	23	345	206	63	197	310	61
1242	2392	699	29	470	223	68	212	386	65
1244	1454	355	24	207	142	59	140	187	57
1246	2209	494	22	67	418	14	424	62	13
1248	1415	295	21	91	201	31	162	127	44
1250	65	15	23	12	3	80	1	14	93
1252	2279	989	43	784	194	80	265	602	69
1254	435	65	15	39	26	60	23	41	64
1260	1262	194	15	57	132	30	97	95	49
1264	6	0	0	0	0		0	0
1266	450	9	2	5	4	56	4	5	56
1268	269	11	4	3	8	27	7	4	36
1270	8	0	0	0	0		0	0
1272	1843	233	13	83	148	36	113	115	50
1274	1564	198	13	82	115	42	94	102	52
1280	422	54	13	21	33	39	30	19	39
1284	2091	165	8	103	62	62	54	100	65
1288	40	11	28	5	6	45	6	5	45
1290	2076	211	10	82	129	39	103	104	50
1292	58	8	14	6	2	75	3	5	62
1296	626	27	4	13	13	50	13	12	48
1306	8	0	0	0	0		0	0
1310	4	0	0	0	0		0	0
1324	1237	85	7	26	58	31	45	38	46
1326	584	58	10	21	37	36	27	29	52
1340	10	1	10	1	0	100	0	1	100
1352	2031	223	11	94	128	42	106	105	50
1360	845	113	13	46	66	41	58	49	46
1372	138	5	4	2	3	40	2	3	60
TOTAL	37807	7167	19.0%	3618	3467	51.1%	3024	3641	54.6%